Notizie

As of June 17, 2025, the Vietnamese black pepper market has experienced a sharp correction. Prices have dropped to 127,000 VND per kilogram, representing a 7.3% decline this week and a total decrease of 11.8% over the past two weeks from a recent high of 144,000 VND. This marks the steepest short-term drop in recent years and has exceeded most market expectations.

The downturn is driven by several key factors. The Iran-Israel conflict has impacted demand from the Middle East, leading to delays in shipments and contract execution. At the same time, rising tensions between Cambodia and Thailand have resulted in excess Cambodian pepper being redirected to Vietnam, further adding to local supply pressure. In addition, uncertainty surrounding a proposed 5% Vietnamese – USA import tax, with a decision expected in July, has created hesitation among traders and exporters.

Between June 1 and 17, Vietnam exported 11,721 metric tons of black pepper, valued at 79.1 million USD. The top markets during this period were China (1,904 tons) and the United States (1,785 tons). Export volume for the full month is projected to reach approximately 20,000 tons.

Despite the price drop, demand has increased significantly—by an estimated 30 to 50 percent compared to April and May. Brazil has suspended offers and is reportedly holding stocks until the market stabilizes. A moderate recovery in prices is expected in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 as geopolitical tensions ease. However, with only eight months remaining until the 2026 harvest, potential inventory challenges may arise if demand continues to accelerate.