TET is Coming

The phrase "TET is coming" might sound familiar to fans of a certain popular TV series, but in this context, it signals the arrival of Vietnam’s TET holiday. This spring festival marks a time when Vietnam pauses to rest and celebrate. It’s also an opportune moment to reflect on the 2024 pepper season, which has seen remarkable developments.

2024 Vietnam Pepper Market Overview

The pepper market in 2024 experienced significant changes, particularly in pricing and export performance. Here's a snapshot of the key statistics:

• Price Trends: The price of pepper rose impressively, starting at 83,500 VND per kilogram on January 1, 2024, and climbing to 152,000 VND per kilogram by December 31, 2024—an 82% increase.
• Export Volumes: Vietnam exported 250,600 tons of pepper in 2024. This included:
• Black pepper: 220,269 tons
• White pepper: 30,331 tons
• Export Turnover: Total export turnover reached 1.318 billion USD, broken down as follows:
• Black pepper: 1.117 billion USD
• White pepper: 200.6 million USD
• Year-on-Year Changes: Despite a 5.1% decrease in export volume compared to 2023, export turnover rose by 45.4%, driven by higher average prices:
• Black pepper: 5,154 USD/ton (+49.7%)
• White pepper: 6,884 USD/ton (+38.9%) 

2025 Pepper Market Outlook

The outlook for 2025 suggests continued challenges for buyers and a constrained supply:

• Vietnamese Production: Many farmers are shifting away from pepper cultivation, either favoring other crops or selling portions of their land to real estate investors. This trend strongly indicates that Vietnam’s pepper output will not increase in 2025.
• Global Alternatives:
• Indonesia is unlikely to step in significantly to fill the gap left by Vietnam.
• Brazil remains an uncertain player, with its output fluctuating.
• Cambodia is steadily growing but has yet to mature as a major force in the global pepper market. 

Key Takeaways

For buyers, the coming year may bring more turbulence in the pepper market. Tight supplies, coupled with limited alternatives from other producing countries, could keep prices high. As TET approaches and Vietnam pauses to celebrate, the pepper industry will reflect on a transformative year and brace for the challenges of 2025.

Sources:

International Pepper Community (ipcnet.org)

Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (vpaspice.org)